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Books,,,
From Refugees To
Citizens
At Home |
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Water can be a cause of war in the
Middle East. It has been widely reported that Israel’s invasion of
the West Bank and Syria in 1967 was designed to control the
headwaters of the Jordan River and the tributaries and aquifers of
the West Bank. Israel’s desire to maintain control of these water
sources is one of the main reasons for its refusal to seal an
agreement with Syria and the Palestinians. Each of these sources, in
the West Bank and at the Syrian border, amounts to 500 million cubic
meters per year (mm3/y), much of which is wasted, as will be
demonstrated.
Water resources in the territory of Palestine on which the State of
Israel was declared in 1948 are 350 mm3/y. This amount was
increased, before 1967, by Israeli drilling under the West Bank and
after the 1967 war, by full control of Palestinian and Syrian water
sources. It reached 2,020 in 1990, of which 1,471 mm3/y is taken
from sources located in Arab territory.
Where does this water go? In 1995, 594 mm3/y went to municipal
(domestic) purposes, 133 to industrial use and 1,300 to agricultural
use. As Peter Beaumont has shown, municipal consumption works out to
be a constant 100 m3/y/person for every year since the creation of
the state in 1948. This is higher than the consumption of Jordan
(60), and much higher than the impoverished West Bank (37.5), which
has lost 90 percent of its water resources to Israel. And the
overcrowded Gaza Strip has a critical water deficit with dangerously
increased salinity.
Israel has maintained the use of 1,200-1,400 mm3/y for agriculture.
The more extravagant use of 860 m3/dunum (1 hectare = 10 dunums) for
irrigation in the 1950s has now been reduced to 600 m3/d. These
precious resources are provided to the farmers at 70 percent of the
cost at 19˘/m3, while the cost to domestic user is $1.0 – $1.76/m3.
Thus domestic users underwrite vast water subsidies to farmers, who
raise water-intensive crops like potatoes, corn, cotton and
watermelon.
Following the expulsion of the Palestinians and confiscation of
their land in 1948, the amount of land under irrigation increased
rapidly, from about 300,000 dunums in the early 1950s to 2 million
dunums in the late 1970s, the difference between the two figures
being Palestinian property. In the 1990s this figure shrank to 1.8
million dunums because of general lack of interest in agriculture.
The total amount of land under cultivation has grown from about 1
million dunums in 1950 to 4.2 million dunums in 1997, shrinking from
a maximum of 4.4 million dunums in 1990, the difference between 1
million dunums and the other figures being confiscated Palestinian
property.
Startling news has been revealed recently showing that the irrigated
land is in fact much smaller than officially stated. The State
Comptroller has issued a report that 865,000 dunums stopped
cultivation in 1988-1999, while still being allocated the same
irrigation water! This means the ‘official’ irrigated area in Israel
(1,943,000 d) is in reality only 1,078,000 d. or only 55% of the
declared area!
Who utilizes this vast land? In 1998 there were 72,500 agricultural
employees, of which 36,800 were Jews. Of those Jews, only 8,600 were
kibbutzniks.
These vast land resources, with their generous water subsidies,
account for only 1.8 percent of Israel’s GDP. To produce this meagre
contribution, Israel has had to import 24,300 foreign workers
(mostly from Thailand) while denying the right of the Palestinian
farmers to till their own land. (Ironically, some of the Palestinian
workers allowed in Israel actually work their own land, as hired
labourers, for the benefit of Israelis.)
The waste in water has been noted by other authors. Some advocate
reducing agricultural activity or changing it to more profitable
crops, which would free water for other uses. One study notes that
“the evidence strongly suggests that Israel’s water quantity crisis
is more a result of misallocation than absolute scarcity.” Another
recommends that the wasted water could be “sold” to Jordan and the
West Bank in a peace deal. Apart from the irony that Israel would be
selling illegally-confiscated water back to its rightful owners, the
fact is that Israel’s enormous water and land resources are
exploited by so few to produce so little. If this land and water
were turned over to the lawful owners, there would be little loss to
Israel—despite common claims to the contrary--and tremendous gain in
the country’s political legitimacy, with a real chance for genuine
peace in the region.
Professor Fadle Naqib, an expert on the Palestinian economy,
formerly with the UN Conference on Trade and Development, says that
although it is common for developing countries to reduce the
agricultural share of their economy, it is necessary for Palestine
to develop its agricultural sector. Capital requirements at this
stage would be small, an ideal situation for a recovering economy.
The vast majority of the refugees are farmers, and agriculture has
been their occupation from time immemorial. When they recover their
land, they will no doubt greatly enhance the value of the
agricultural product. The refugees in Gaza already do so. With
scarce and saline water, they produce better and cheaper vegetables
than the neighbouring kibbutzim. That is why Israel refuses to admit
their products to its market. I am not of course suggesting that all
refugees should revert to agriculture or that agriculture is their
only occupation. Palestinians are one of the most highly educated
peoples in the Arab world, and have flourished in a number of
skilled occupations. The point here is simply that Palestinians have
a deep attachment to their land and will be able to cultivate it
more economically than the Israelis. With their education, they will
be able to meet the challenge of industrialized agriculture when
this economic threshold is reached.
Another area of Palestinian excellence is Jaffa oranges, known for
centuries. After the Israelis conquered Jaffa environs in 1948, “the
overwhelming majority of the 150,000 dunums of citrus trees remained
unattended…. roughly one-fifth of the abandoned citrus groves in the
whole country were still being cultivated.” The Israelis looted the
pumps and pipelines and earmarked large tracts for housing
construction. The remainder of citrus groves, which produced 950,000
tons in 1975, deteriorated to the extent that only 340,000 tons were
produced in 1997 and 250,000 tons in the drought year of 1991. The
famous Jaffa oranges could be revived by the Palestinian farmers who
originally planted these citrus groves.
A more serious problem, however, will soon arise which may lead to a
war bringing further destruction to the region.
Israel water requirements, now stand at 2,000 million cubic metres
(mm3), two thirds of which are Arab, are barely met from the water
resources at Israel’s disposal. Assuming the most modest increase in
Jewish population and using the present rate of consumption, Israel
would need 2,427 mm3 in the year 2020
(Fig. 12) and 3,335 in the year 2050.
When all the refugees return and with less extravagant use of water
(60 cubic metres per capita, instead of the present 100, there will
be a requirement for 2,803 mcm, or a mere 15% increase.
The point is that any requirements over the present 2,000 will have
to be obtained from elsewhere. The treatment of waste water will
only defer the problem a little while. The desalination is very
expensive, both as initial and running cost. It is barely successful
in the Gulf where energy is cheap. Transportation of water from
Turkey by sea requires reservoirs, now being built in Isdud and has
health hazards associated with contamination.
With no refugees’ return, hence no peace, Israel may be tempted to
attack Arab countries once again, seizing water resources in
Lebanon, Syria and even Jordan. That will be the height of folly.
If, by the return of refugees, peace prevails, it is conceivable
that regional agreements may be signed with neighbouring countries,
including Iraq perhaps, so that water resources are shared based on
justice and equity. It is also possible that water pipeline may be
extended from Turkey or Iraq on Syrian soil. It is also possible
that the energy required for desalination may be transmitted from
the Gulf. Thus, the return of the refugees, a necessary prerequisite
for the end of the conflict, may bring peace to the region and
prevent war.
The well-known slick schemes proposed by Shimon Peres to bag all the
benefits of the regional agreements without paying the price of
justice and equity have all, not surprisingly, met their
well-deserved demise.
To be sure, there are problems to solve. Many refugees would have to
change their present occupation (now 25% in construction) and revert
back to agriculture. Tighter controls on water consumption will have
to be applied. At some cut-off point, say a maximum of 1,300 mm3/y,
agriculture has to be industrialized. New and improved crops will
have to be grown. In all this, Israeli research may be useful.
Certainly the Palestinians would be enthusiastic workers, since they
would be returning to their land cultivated by their forefathers for
centuries. All in all, the return of peace and stability to the
region far outweighs any application problems.
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